Changchun High-tech (000661): Kinsey’s equity structure straightens out global growth hormone leader


Changchun High-tech (000661): Kinsey’s equity structure straightens out global growth hormone leader
Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s equity structure has been streamlined, and global growth hormone leaders have emerged.The equity issue of Jinsai Pharmaceutical has always been the focus of market attention, and it is also one of the major repression factors facing the company.On June 5, 2019, the company announced that Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s equity acquisition and matching fund raising plan (budget), Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s equity structure forecast was straightened out, bringing the company’s performance and valuation to both improve.With reference to the current growth rate of Jinsai Pharmaceutical, we estimate that its operating income in 2021 is expected to exceed US $ 8 billion, of which growth hormone metabolism will exceed US $ 7 billion.According to the annual report data of various companies, the current size of the foreign growth hormone market is basically maintained at about 3 billion US dollars. Based on this calculation, it is estimated that the global growth hormone market share of Jinsai Pharmaceutical will be close to 25% in 2021, and the global growth hormone leader will emerge. The state-owned assets holding platform of Changchun City continued to grow rapidly.Changchun High-tech is a state-owned asset investment incubation platform in Changchun. After years of exploration and development, a development model with bio-pharmaceutical as an alternative industry and characteristic real estate as an auxiliary industry has gradually formed.Since 2007, the company’s operating income and net profit attributable to mothers have maintained rapid growth, with compound annual growth rates of 21 respectively.0% vs. 55.2%.Benefiting from the rapid growth of the growth hormone and vaccine business, the company achieved operating income in 201853.75 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.03%, net profit attributable to mother 10.0.6 million yuan, an increase of 52 in ten years.05%; operating income of 17 in the first quarter of 2019.75 ppm, a 72-year increase of 72.07%, net profit attributable to mother 3.650,000 yuan, an increase of 73 in ten years.67%. Growth hormone + follicle stimulating hormone increased at a high speed, and Jinsai’s stock exchange brought double improvement in performance evaluation.Jinsai Pharmaceutical is the company’s genetically engineered drug platform. The sales of core varieties of growth hormone continue to grow rapidly, and the continuity of its high growth has become the focus of market attention.After systematic measurement, we found that the measured penetration rate of the growth hormone stock market in 2018 was about 11.9%, the actual penetration rate is expected to be only about 10%, which is still at a low level; and the development of indications such as idiopathic dwarf, the penetration rate of the growth hormone market will decrease.Taking into account the announcement that the number of new patients enrolled by Jinsai Pharmaceutical in 19Q1 continued to increase, the per capita medication time of patients continued to increase, the increase in the proportion of long-acting water injection sales led to an increase in per capita treatment costs, and the number of sales staff and covered doctors continued to increaseThe company’s growth hormone sales will continue to grow rapidly 成都桑拿网 in the next 3-5 years.In addition, Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s recombined human follicle stimulating hormone is the first domestic imitation product, which has achieved rapid sales volume through the orderly development of bidding in various provinces and cities.According to the company announcement, the company’s recombinant human follicle stimulating hormone setting has reached 1 in 2018.40,000 yuan, an increase of 197 in ten years.4%, is expected to become the company’s new performance growth point in the future.Assume that the growth rate of Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s performance in 2019-2021 will be 50%, 35%, 25%, the completion of the share conversion and 99.The 5% consolidation time is 19Q4, and the 2020 Jinsai share swap will bring 6 to the company.With a profit increase of 800 million US dollars, if it is given 40 times PE, the market value brought by the share conversion will be diluted, which will still bring the company a market value increase of 16.6 billion. The vaccine business is expected to grow steadily, and the nasal spray influenza vaccine will be available soon.Biogram is the company’s vaccine business platform. The current core vaccine varieties are chickenpox vaccine and rabies vaccine.According to the data of the China Institute of Inspection and Quarantine, the company’s batch of vaccine approvals for the first five months of the company followed the same period in the subsequent period, which is mainly related to the tightening of industry supervision and the approval of vaccine approvals. It is expected that the company’s approvals will gradually return to normal afterwards. Taking into account the suspension of production of Changsheng Biological, the domestic supply of chickenpox vaccine and rabies vaccine is tight, and at the same time Maifeng Bio rabies vaccine production capacity is continuously released, the company’s vaccine business is expected to grow steadily.In addition, CDE’s official website shows that the company’s nasal spray vaccine has been declared for production and has been replaced for priority review. It is expected to be approved for listing in 2019 and officially go on sale in 2020, further contributing to the company’s performance increase. Investment suggestion: Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price is 394.16 yuan.Suppose Kinsey Pharmaceutical 99.The 5% consolidation time is 19Q4, and we expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 15 in 2019-2021.60 billion, 25.3.8 billion, 31.31 trillion, outstanding growth; according to the segment estimation method, we estimate that the company’s reasonable market value for 2019-2021 will be 80.5 billion, 96.2 billion and 1052 trillion, respectively, compared to the current market value of the space after the share swap is 11.5%, 33.3% and 45.9%; give Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price is 394.16 yuan, equivalent to 52 times the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2019. Risk reminders: Jinsai Pharmaceuticals risks of termination of share swap, market growth hormone growth is less than expected, core product price reduction risks, new drug development is less than expected, etc.