Seven of the Spring Sugar and Liquor Meetings in 2019: Shuijingfang (600779): Three new products appeared to make every effort to increase steadily
According to channel survey feedback, Shuijingfang’s 19-year sales target is still expected to be around 30%. Spring candy will launch three new products, and the recent cost of investment has significantly increased, and strive to achieve the high-growth target in the first half of the year.
The management of the off-season price system and the combing of off-season inventory will be a key factor in determining the growth rate this year. The mid-autumn season will become a 杭州桑拿stress test point. We carefully judge to expand the growth center by 15-20%.
Under the background of Diageo’s continuous overweight and foreign control panel, it is estimated that there is only support, and the EPS forecast for 18-20 years is slightly adjusted to 1.
50 and 1.
79 yuan, 25-30 times PE for 20 years, target price range of 45-54 yuan, maintain “highly recommended-A” rating . spring sugar feedback: three new products unveiled, the actual goal is positive.
According to grassroots analysis feedback, Shuijingfang’s sales growth target for this year is still expected to be at a relatively high level of about 30%, and the target is set actively.
The Spring Sugar Club company launched Zhenjing No. 8 Jubilee Edition, Jingtai Silk Road Edition (for three provinces and regional products, only released for three months), and Jingtai Collector’s Edition three new products, including Zhenjing No. 8 Jubilee EditionThe price increased by 20 yuan to 315 yuan.
It is expected that the three products released this time should be tactical supplementary products. The Jubilee No. 8 Jubilee Edition will further increase its price, and the Jingtai Silk Road Edition will be launched for regionalization, and strive to achieve the goal.
Predicted rhythm: The recent cost increase has increased significantly, and high growth is expected in the first half of the year.
After the company’s spring candy, the cost of new products has increased (some regions reached historical highs), which is in line with our judgment of 19 years of intensified competition in the high-end price band and increased costs.
For the company, under the higher target formulation, the current increase in the allocation of T1, terminal and consumer costs in the core market will ensure that Q1 is a good start, and the base in the second quarter will be reduced. It is still worth looking forward to the high growth target achieved by H1.
Preliminary outlook: There is still room in the core market, and the mid-autumn season will become a stress test point.
The company experienced rapid growth in the previous two years, and the restorative and highly flexible dividends have been realized. Under the combined effect of reorganization management capabilities and channel thrust, Jingtai and Zhenjing No. 8 have grown into first-tier sub-brands in the “5 + 5” core market.At present, the core market is still growing, and research reports that the new-generation region is better than the old-generation region, and it is expected to contribute to this year’s main growth rate.
Against the background of the overall high base, whether the company’s off-season price system management and inventory management are smooth is a key factor in determining the growth rate this year. At present, depending on the adjustment pressure of the price system and inventory average, the mid-autumn season in the third quarter will be a proportional stress test point, so weIt is more reasonable to judge the expected growth rate to 15-20%.
Investment suggestion: It is estimated to be sufficient to support, and the target price range is 45-54 yuan. Maintain the “strong recommendation-A” rating.
The market is expected to resume the growth of Shuijingfang, and the merger of Diageo’s tender offer will catalyze the upward movement of the sector’s estimated center. The current estimate is that it has recovered to a reasonable level of 30 times PE.
The company has advantages in channel model, brand accumulation and system management. Diageo has continuously increased its confidence to show its confidence. Against the background of foreign control panels, the company is expected to maintain support and it is recommended to continue to hold a dips layout.
We slightly adjust the EPS forecast for 18-20 to 1.
50 and 1.
79 yuan (1 last time).
41 and 1.
78 yuan), giving PE at 25-30 times over 20 years, target price range of 45-54 yuan, maintaining the “strong recommendation-A” rating.
Risk warning: demand falls, price system gets out of control, and competition intensifies